When will the heat arrive?
Last century ... but when will the heat arrive? Still towards the cold ... but man claims the opposite. Because? Yet the data prove him wrong.
From the last decades of the 19th centurysystematic monitoring of meteorological data began, with a relatively dense network of stations that could allow indicative processing.
In this chapter relating to the last century of the 2nd millennium, not being able to have average values of the globe, we took as a model the trends in temperatures and rainfall in the city of Rome, being in the central position of the country, considering them sufficiently indicative for an analysis of the meteorological evolution of a more circumscribed area and not influenced by trends on a continental level, which is perhaps what interests us most.
Obviously, while in the reconstruction of the trends made in the previous chapters the temperature excursions were referred by attributing the value of 16 ° C to the average of the globe, in this chapter the reference is the average temperature of Rome (8.9 ° C) during the last century.
We had left the 19th century when it seemed that the Little Glaciation was about to end, as the temperature had risen sufficiently and that we could have the ideal climate of the Middle Ages, but the illusion had little duration since starting from 1890 ( 1.2 ° C), which represents the maximum difference towards the heat of the period, started to fall again until 1915 with a difference of -0.7 ° C compared to the annual average.
After this interval there was an average warmer period, from 1915 to 1955, during which the temperature through various oscillations remained above the average, reaching its peak in 1930, with a difference of 0.9 ° C.
Since 1955 the thermal fluctuations have almost always been with values below the average, with the minimum peak of -1.5 ° C in 1970, and then rise again in the last thirty years, reaching a difference of -0.5 ° C.
So it is true that for some decades the temperature has been rising, without yet reaching the values of the beginning of the century, but as a whole the trend of thermal excursions is clearly towards a cooling of the climate, as clearly indicated by the trend line of the graph (green line), which from an initial value of 0.6 ° C at the end of the 19th century reaches -0.8 ° C today.
Often, when there are short but intense periods of rain (which always occur in those wettest periods of the year for many millennia) the mass media link them to the greenhouse effect, accusing the pollution of causing a rise in temperature through the emission of gases (mainly carbon dioxide), prophesying short-term catastrophes, regularly denied.
In order to find a cause-effect relationship between temperature trends and rainfall, we have reported in the graph the rainfall values, relative to Rome, which show that not always higher temperatures are accompanied by a rise in temperature. Broadly speaking, the first half of 1900 was rainier than the second half, in contradiction with the trend in temperature and with the development of industrialization and car traffic, which at that time was almost non-existent.
All the more reason the trend of the trend line (yellow rect) shows a predisposition towards less rainfall, even if within limited values, with the tendency of the temperature towards cold.
How can we explain this contrast between the trends in meteorological data and the more or less personal assessments of those who comment or make pseudo-meteorological forecasts? At the base of everything there are the micro-variations, very limited in time, to draw conclusions and formulate long-term forecasts on the basis of a purely contingent event.
Nature has been and will be bizarre for its inconstancy and predictability. Suffice it to see what is happening in this first part of winter: until now we have had a relatively mild climate given the season, so the catastrophic forecasts on a warm future due to the greenhouse effect have been dusted off, but a cold wave in mid-January to silence so much alarmism.
Is it true that pollution values can influence major meteorological phenomena?
Why in the past centuries and millennia, when all forms of pollution were to be excluded, did the climate, in its main expressions of temperature and rainfall, have the same bizarre and unpredictable trends?
Why have we been terrified of Antarctica's ozone hole for years, while now distinguished scientists reassure us that the situation will return to normal in a few decades? So what did the Freon gas have to do with the refrigerators and cans that had been banned for a few years?
All these questions are posed by the man in the street and the mass media do not realize that, by emphasizing climatic situations that fall within the norm, when they advocate, or even are the architects, of catastrophic forecasts capable of destroying the human race, they get a single result: the skepticism on the part of readers and listeners about scientific information, even when it is rarely given objectively, with the result that the calls to reduce pollution for health reasons remain unfulfilled.
There are many other natural phenomena, which do not in themselves hold the name of exceptional events, such as floods, if the nefarious and reckless work of man had not intervened, as we will see in the next issue of Climate and Environment on Elicriso. .
Dr. Pio Petrocchi
African anticyclone in action on Europe. When the heat arrives in Italy
Really cool days characterize this spring phase (or perhaps better defined late autumn), in particular the first fortnight of May. However, many ask us when it will end and when we will get a little hot or maybe even just a temperature in line with the period.
In reality, on some of the continent the heat has already arrived and in recent days they have had to face a real hot breath with a clear African mold, areas where the thermal values were practically summer with the total absence of clouds. A situation that will soon arrive on our Italian peninsula, even if we will tell you right away that not EVERYWHERE we will experience the first summer taste with maximum values over 30 ° C.
So let's see the latest updates on evolution waiting for the next few days:
The analysis of recent emissions from the most authoritative computing centers identifies one possible more stable parenthesis and quite hot since next weekend. The vast anticyclonic field that is extending from North Africa to Western Europe will also partially invade our territory, in particular the southern regions and the two major islands, bringing wide clear spaces, a conspicuous amount of sunshine and maximum temperatures up to around 30 ° C.
It will be precisely that slice of high pressure that has been affecting the areas between the for days Spain and Portugal, where the mercury has already got to exceed 35 ° C a baric set-up that guaranteed stability even on the British Isles with temperatures that have reached in the last few hours peaks of over 20 ° C, quite unique values for both the period and the area.
However, not all Italian areas will be affected by the heat, in fact part of the central regions and the north will remain under unstable Atlantic influences.
For something more structured, lasting and widespread we will have to wait until the last decade, when probably the high pressure will invade the Mediterranean with more decisiveness and we will have the first 35 ° C especially in Sicily and Sardinia, but until that moment most of the Italy could be characterized by unstable Atlantic currents.
Here comes the big heat: hot week in Italy
The African anticyclone is on its way, bringing waves of heat and mugginess. A combination that will increase the sensation of heat and boiling air
27 July 2020 Temperature columns ready to splash up. In the next few days in the big cities it will reach 38 and 40 degrees
The forecasts are from the website www.ilmeteo.it.
It starts a bit quietly with sunny weather on Sunday 2 August and some thunderstorms on the Alpine borders.
After the weekend, the mercury column is destined for an inexorable climb throughout Italy. On Thursday it will reach 37-38 degrees in Florence, Mantua, Ferrara, Bologna and in many areas of Sardinia, Sicily and Puglia, in particular Foggia and Taranto.
New leap up on Friday when the peak of the African anticyclone reaches its maximum. Between Friday and Sunday there will be 40 degrees in Florence, 38 degrees in Rome, Milan, Turin, Verona, Mantua, Ferrara, Perugia. In inland areas of Sardinia it will touch 43 degrees. Perhaps you will breathe a little better in the other cities where the heat will settle at 34-35. Exception for the areas of Liguria where the thermometer will not rise above 30 degrees.
Hot temperatures never travel alone and even in this case they bring with them the heat that especially in big cities will increase the sensation of heat and make the air an unbreathable hood.
Weather: TEMPERATURE, A BOOM of Heat Is Coming, Thermometers Up to 24 ° C. Here's where and until when
New heat boom on the way A robust high pressure area is gradually approaching Italy ready to propose a phase of time gradually more and more stable. In fact, in the next few days, we will experience a real HOT BOOM, with the thermometers ready to reach peaks of 24 ° C on some corners of the country. But let's see then where it will be warmer and how long it will last.
Tuesday, the increasingly evident presence of an anticyclone will lead to a general and further improvement of conditions weather and the temperatures they will timidly begin to give positive signals especially during the day. Instead, it will remain a little chilly at night and early in the morning at North and in inner valleys of the Center.
The plus phase hot will be recorded mainly between Wednesday and Thursday when thehigh pressure will manage to wrap with its load of stability and very mild air practically the whole country. At this juncture they will be widely recorded values close to 20 ° C especially al Center-North with peaks also of 23-24 degrees in inner valleys of Trentino Alto Adige. Thermal values higher than 20 degrees they will also register in many cities such as a Milan, Bologna, Florence and Rome.
However on the end of the week, L'high pressure it will begin to give some signs of fatigue. Already since Friday masses of air will begin to flow less mild and more humid which could take additional energy over the course of the weekend causing a greater incidence of clouds and some rain from North resulting in a new e general thermal drop.
CENTRO-SOUTH WEATHER: when does the coolness arrive? Will last? The answers
The weather of our central and southern regions offers an intense heat wave, the stronger than summer. How long will it last? When will the beloved refreshment arrive?
The most attentive readers will have noticed that in our geographical foci we have confirmed the fend of the heat for Sunday evening in the North and for Monday elsewhere (also on Tuesday for the two major islands).
How many degrees will be lost? It will basically return on average, but with variations: the regions Adriatic will benefit from the greater heat loss, while Sicily and Sardinia will be the most penalized, as, from the latest updates, it seems that the refreshment in these places is very mild and fast, without rain (but official confirmation will arrive in the next few days).
Schematic projections of the refresh coming up for Monday / Tuesday.
Moreover, the anticyclone will still be ready to make its way back from the southwest, therefore the refreshment will not last long for the Major Islands, more noticeable between Marche and Puglia, where - to date - we do not exclude locally strong thunderstorms, as the thermal contrast between very different air masses will favor the possibility of these weather phenomena.
In the next updates we will be further more precise with timing and type of bad weather, with forecasts for the whole of next week.
For those interested, we also provide monthly trends: readers will be able to use them directly by searching our site for le weather trends for the month of August.
Does the heat help defeat the coronavirus? It's not that easy
A lot has been said about it in recent months and it's not that simple. Viruses are generally conditioned by the climate, so scientists speculate that the spread of the virus - which obviously depends not only on temperatures but on many other factors - may actually decrease in the summer. But Sars-CoV-2 doesn't die in the heat.
Therefore, even if with a "favorable" weather, so to speak, it will not go away and will come back when temperatures drop, therefore mainly - again - where it all began, or in the colder areas, northern Italy. All these are hypotheses, what will really happen we will see in the coming months.
But there is no weather, there is also the climate: let's not forget that
If the weather forecasts for summer are increasingly unpredictable (forgive the pun), and those for summer 2020 are no exception, it is also due to climate changes going on on the planet. A problem that is often overshadowed but that we should never forget because it explains many of the strange phenomena we experience.
If you don't remember the difference between weather and climate let's keep it simple. The weather represents the atmospheric conditions of a certain area in a short period. One day, two days, one week. Climate is something much broader, both in space and in time. Climatology studies periods of decades or centuries. This is why we can speak of the "climate of the planet".
And that's what we should really worry about. By now the whole scientific community is in agreement: it is the first time that climate change (there have been others) is caused by man.
The extreme weather phenomena that we have been witnessing for years, such as melting glaciers, summer heat waves or the increase of hurricanes, are caused by global warming. Our planet is sick, and we are the cause.